Why Tyson's 11% guidance cut is a 43% cut to one quarter
Tyson took $250m off its fiscal 2026 outlook a month after setting it. Beef is half. Chicken, which the release praises, is $75m of it.
5 primary sourcesTicker · 1 article
TSN
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Last checked Sep 4, 2026All companies
Figures we worked out for TSN
Not a data feed. Each of these was calculated inside one of the articles above, from the filings listed at the bottom of this page. The arithmetic is shown so you can redo it — and it is re-run every time this site is built.
| Figure | Value | Arithmetic |
|---|---|---|
| Why Tyson's 11% guidance cut is a 43% cut to one quarter | ||
| Total adjusted operating income guidance, at the midpoint | −11.4% | ((1.85 + 2.05) / 2) / ((2.1 + 2.3) / 2) - 1 |
| Implied fourth quarter, at the midpoint | −42.8% | (1950 - 1616) / (2200 - 1616) - 1 |
| Implied fourth quarter under the old guidance, midpoint, $m | $584m | 2200 - 1616 |
| Implied fourth quarter under the new guidance, midpoint, $m | $334m | 1950 - 1616 |
| Beef guidance change at the midpoint, $m | −$125m | ((-775 - 625) / 2) - ((-650 - 500) / 2) |
| Chicken guidance change at the midpoint, $m | −$75m | ((1850 + 1950) / 2) - ((1900 + 2050) / 2) |
| Pork guidance change at the midpoint, $m | −$50m | ((200 + 250) / 2) - ((250 + 300) / 2) |
| The three segment changes against the change in the total, $m | −$250m | (-125) + (-75) + (-50) |
| Beef as a share of the reduction | +50.0% | 125 / 250 |
| Implied fourth-quarter Beef under the old guidance, $m | −$92m | (-575) - (-483) |
| Implied fourth-quarter Beef under the new guidance, $m | −$217m | (-700) - (-483) |
| Third-quarter sales, year on year | −0.1% | 13868 / 13884 - 1 |
| Third-quarter GAAP operating income, year on year | +39.2% | 362 / 260 - 1 |
| Nine-month sales, year on year | +3.1% | 41834 / 40581 - 1 |
| Nine-month GAAP operating income, year on year | +16.9% | 1099 / 940 - 1 |
| Nine-month adjusted segment operating income, year on year | −3.6% | 2341 / 2429 - 1 |
| Nine-month Chicken adjusted operating income, year on year | +10.5% | 1470 / 1330 - 1 |
| Weighted average coupon on the new notes, percent | 5.35 | (500 * 5.100 + 500 * 5.600) / 1000 |
| Annual coupon on the new notes, $m | $54m | 500 * 0.051 + 500 * 0.056 |
| That coupon against guided full-year net interest expense | +14.7% | (500 * 0.051 + 500 * 0.056) / 365 |
| Total debt at 27 June 2026, $m | $8,006m | 1427 + 6579 |
| Total debt against the prior fiscal year end | −9.3% | (1427 + 6579) / (909 + 7921) - 1 |
| Opening gap on 3 September 2026 | −6.5% | 52.16 / 55.81 - 1 |
| Closing change on 3 September 2026 | −7.3% | 51.76 / 55.81 - 1 |
| Level on 4 September against the pre-announcement close | −7.9% | 51.42 / 55.81 - 1 |
| Volume against the prior 23-session average | 2.51× | 7286995 / 2899985 |
26 figures from 1 article. Totals and industry averages that belong to no single company are not listed here.
Primary sources used
- Tyson Foods, Inc. — Form 8-K filed 3 September 2026, Exhibit 99.1The revised fiscal 2026 outlook — revenue growth 1.5–2.0%, total adjusted operating income $1.85–2.05bn, Beef $(775)–(625)m, Chicken $1.85–1.95bn, Pork $200–250m. Furnished under Item 7.01, not filed
- Tyson Foods, Inc. — Form 8-K filed 3 August 2026, Exhibit 99.1The outlook this article measures the cut against, plus the third-quarter and nine-month results it is subtracted from — nine-month adjusted operating income of $1,616m and the adjusted segment table
- Tyson Foods, Inc. — Form 424B5 filed 11 August 2026Recent Developments and Use of Proceeds — the tender offer for up to $1.2bn of the 3.55% 2027, 4.35% 2029 and 5.40% 2029 notes, expiring 8 September 2026, and net proceeds of approximately $989m
- Tyson Foods, Inc. — Form 424B5 filing fee exhibit (EX-FILING FEES), 11 August 2026The priced terms — $500,000,000 of 5.100% Notes due 2031 at 99.969 and $500,000,000 of 5.600% Notes due 2037 at 99.608
- Daily prices, TSN, 3 August – 4 September 2026 (market data, not a filing)Databento US Equities Summary, OHLCV-1d schema, retrieved with scripts/quote.mjs. Data Provided by Databento. Prices are delayed; the latest session used here is 4 September 2026
5documents, deduplicated. Links go to the original filing, not to a summary.